Corona virus outbreak

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DNS
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by DNS »

mikenz66 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:25 am So, I don't think it's "draconian policies". "Effective measures" would be a more accurate description.
I guess it depends on how one interprets "effective measures" vs "draconian measures."

I've seen some documentaries on MSM (nothing fringe) showing the Chinese government literally dragging people away from their homes, offices, while shopping, all against their will. Chinese officials watching on cctv surveillance and calling out to people to put their masks on. If they refuse, police come and tackle them, force them or arrest them.

It's draconian measures, but I'm not necessarily saying that's a bad thing. These are unusual times and you want to eradicate it as fast as possible before it spreads; so it may be the best policy considering the highly contagious nature of the virus.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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SarathW wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:34 am - Sri Lanka is a hot country so viruses die very quickly. (then what about middle east countries? they are much hotter)
- Sri Lankans have a higher immune system due to consuming spices. (Then what about Indians. They use tons of spices)
- Sri Lankans extend loving-kindness to everyone including viruses!!!!! (Then what about Dengu fever etc?)
:rofl:
Viruses are probably not a form of life, so no need to extend loving-kindness to them. According to Buddhism, no one gets reborn as a "virus."
Opinions differ on whether viruses are a form of life, or organic structures that interact with living organisms.[66] They have been described as "organisms at the edge of life",[8] since they resemble organisms in that they possess genes, evolve by natural selection,[67] and reproduce by creating multiple copies of themselves through self-assembly. Although they have genes, they do not have a cellular structure, which is often seen as the basic unit of life. Viruses do not have their own metabolism, and require a host cell to make new products. They therefore cannot naturally reproduce outside a host cell[68]—although bacterial species such as rickettsia and chlamydia are considered living organisms despite the same limitation.[69][70] Accepted forms of life use cell division to reproduce, whereas viruses spontaneously assemble within cells. They differ from autonomous growth of crystals as they inherit genetic mutations while being subject to natural selection. Virus self-assembly within host cells has implications for the study of the origin of life, as it lends further credence to the hypothesis that life could have started as self-assembling organic molecules.[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus#Life_properties
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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DNS wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:32 pm I've seen some documentaries on MSM (nothing fringe) showing the Chinese government literally dragging people away ...
I think you mean local police, etc. I don't think Xi Jinping goes out looking for recalcitrants... :tongue:

Yes, things can get over the top, which is never good! You can find similar scenes in western countries in times of strife and crisis.

What struck me, watching Al Jazeera last night (which had some interesting interviews with experts in London), was the scenes in East Asian countries such as Korea, which were quiet, and everyone who was outside was wearing a mask.

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Last edited by mikenz66 on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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mikenz66 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:03 am Italy now has 5x the number of diagnosed cases per million population as China (and five other Eurpean contries are "ahead" of China). Italy currently has 15,000 cases (60M population, similar to Hubei) At the current growth rate they will have 85,000 in one week. Hopefully, their lockdown will prove effective.
OK, so the "new deaths" that popped up for Italy on this website this morning (my time) was 250 (total 1266): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sadly, this daily number happens to be approximately the total number of deaths in Italy attributed to the 2009/10 H1N1 flu pandemic (244): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_ ... by_country

One can only imagine what it's now like in hospitals struggling to find space to treat people. I know that here we struggle for enough suitable hospital beds in a normal flu season...

One of my Paris colleagues tells me that schools and universities are now closed.

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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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mikenz66 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:10 pm OK, so the "new deaths" that popped up for Italy on this website this morning (my time) was 250 (total 1266): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sadly, this daily number happens to be approximately the total number of deaths in Italy attributed to the 2009/10 H1N1 flu pandemic (244): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_ ... by_country

One can only imagine what it's now like in hospitals struggling to find space to treat people. I know that here we struggle for enough suitable hospital beds in a normal flu season...

One of my Paris colleagues tells me that schools and universities are now closed.

:heart:
Mike
According to the following article:
One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-c ... -high.html

Under normal situation such as seasonal flu where quarantine measures are not perceived as necessary, those who died would be distributed among different wards at hospitals hence their causes of deaths would be attributed to other causes than pneumonia or respiratory infections who most dying people develop anyway for different reasons.

Also, the Nocebo effect due to fear mongering would result in more people feeling the need to be hospitalized as opposite to seasonal flu, while if left alone, they would just probably take a rest until they feel better.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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Bundokji wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:45 pm...
Thank you for your opinion.

Be well.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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In other developments, a spokesman of the Chinese government accused the US of bringing the coronavirus to China. Similar accusations were made by Iran supreme leader.

The war over oil prices between Saudi and Russia is another strange phenomena considering that both will severely lose from lower prices.

The overall level of mistrust between nations seems to be increasing.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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I personally think this is more dangerous than the seasonal flu.
The only way to check this is to compare the death from flu other than coronavirus at a given time.
The way I understand death from seasonal flue is only one in a thousand and death from coronavirus is about 40 in a thousand.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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SarathW wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:04 am I personally think this is more dangerous than the seasonal flu.
The only way to check this is to compare the death from flu other than coronavirus at a given time.
The way I understand death from seasonal flue is only one in a thousand and death from coronavirus is about 40 in a thousand.
You must have experienced flu at least few times in this life, some are mild and some are more sever. We call them all "flu" due to similarities in the symptoms and we don't give a shit what strain of flu it is.

Even within the same strain of flu, severity varies among individuals for various reasons. However, we adjust to certain risks and no longer attribute death to them collectively, but assess based on a case by case basis. For example, if you are young and healthy and have a severe flu that kills you, we consider it reasonable to attribute death to flu in this particular case. However, if you are old with several other diseases, and it happened that you have some infection in your respiratory system, we would consider this as a natural complication of an already fragile health.

Just imagine that we describe all people with terminal illness who develop flu and die afterwords as: died because of flu! This would be unreasonable, would it not? And if they are extremely old, we would accept and say their time is done. The idea of untimely death is often associated with control or lack of.

In the article i shared previously, it is mentioned that some of the coronavirus death toll in Italy are cancer patients. Because coronavirus is presented to us as something distinct from seasonal flu and something new, even cancer patients would be included in its mortality rate, but not so with seasonal flu. Don't forget that they are testing for it to determine correlations in order to make conclusions about causation. Without this type of seeking confirmation, cancer patients would not even get tested for what strain of viruses inflamed their respiratory systems. It would be perceived as something commonly happening for a system that is already collapsing.

Another possible cognitive bias is assuming that the law of average is equally applicable to all members within the group. For example, if we are told that the mortality rate of coronavirus is 3%, the individual might think that if he/she got infected, there is a 3% chance that they will die, which is a flawed reasoning. If the average height of members of this forum is 170cm, you wont find even one of the forum members who is exactly presents that average.

What we already know is that healthy people who got infected describe their experiences as a normal flu, especially if they are not told what strain of viruses they are infected with. And even when individuals experience unusually strong flu, we accepted as strong flu and move on! nothing special.

It is extremely likely that the whole thing is much ado about nothing. The world's reaction, however, is a cause of suspicion, not the virus itself.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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Bundokji wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:46 am It is extremely likely that the whole thing is much ado about nothing. The world's reaction, however, is a cause of suspicion, not the virus itself.
The problem with this argument is that hospitals in Italy (and elsewhere) appear to be overflowing with very sick people. Or is that, and the deaths, just made up?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not ... irus-limit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -survival/

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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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At least we still have Arnold...

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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by Bundokji »

mikenz66 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:25 am The problem with this argument is that hospitals in Italy (and elsewhere) appear to be overflowing with very sick people. Or is that, and the deaths, just made up?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not ... irus-limit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -survival/

:heart:
Mike
Under normal situations, hospitals are always crowded with very sick people (at least where i live!) Probably arranging patients differently due to special measures related to coronavirus made it even more crowded. For example, a cancer patient with a respiratory problems would remain in the cancer treatment section of the hospital. If he/she is diagnosed with coronavirus however, he/she would be removed to another section out of fear for other cancer patients. Rearranging everything to accommodate the new perception can create unnecessary mess. Needless to say that the Nocebo effect due to the hype around coronavirus would make people feel unnecessary sick and would cause them to seek hospitalization, especially those with high anxiety levels such as OCD.

If there is a strong correlation between coronavirus and the above phenomena, it would have been experienced across the globe. One possibility is that the Italians overreaction created a whole series of unnecessary mess. Mishandling can always include overreacting.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by Nemo »

Bundokji wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:01 am
mikenz66 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:25 am The problem with this argument is that hospitals in Italy (and elsewhere) appear to be overflowing with very sick people. Or is that, and the deaths, just made up?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/not ... irus-limit
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -survival/

:heart:
Mike
Under normal situations, hospitals are always crowded with very sick people (at least where i live!) Probably arranging patients differently due to special measures related to coronavirus made it even more crowded. For example, a cancer patient with a respiratory problems would remain in the cancer treatment section of the hospital. If he/she is diagnosed with coronavirus however, he/she would be removed to another section out of fear for other cancer patients. Rearranging everything to accommodate the new perception can create unnecessary mess. Needless to say that the Nocebo effect due to the hype around coronavirus would make people feel unnecessary sick and would cause them to seek hospitalization, especially those with high anxiety levels such as OCD.

If there is a strong correlation between coronavirus and the above phenomena, it would have been experienced across the globe. One possibility is that the Italians overreaction created a whole series of unnecessary mess. Mishandling can always include overreacting.
I'm kinda curious how long you can insulate yourself from facts. Having worked for years in hospitals your insights are amazing. It's like you actually spent an entire hour once inside one visiting a relative. Such detailed analysis is very informative.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by SarathW »

Well.
President Trump started with that the coronavirus is just a seasonal flue,
Now he freed up 50 billion dollars to combat the decease.
I think he has conceded that this is a serious problem.
Or is this just an excuse for quick money-grabbing?

Right now I am suffering from the sour throat, coughing. I think it is just a seasonal flue. If I thought it was coronavirus I would take more precautions.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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Nemo wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:10 am I'm kinda curious how long you can insulate yourself from facts. Having worked for years in hospitals your insights are amazing. It's like you actually spent an entire hour once inside one visiting a relative. Such detailed analysis is very informative.
I don't need to spend years of my life in a hospitals to question certain interpretations of data!

The total number of confirmed cases in Italy as of yesterday is around 15,000 people in a total population of 60 million people, do you know how mathematically negligible is that (even if most of them are concentrated in certain areas than others)? Keep in mind that those 15,000 cases have been confirmed over how long? two weeks? which means that they are not discharging people and probably combining them in one section of the hospital which gives the impression of over crowded!

When i say people are becoming overly anxious because of the hype, i am not using my fantasy but what the corrupt media is reporting as well as daily observations. The same people who stored toilet papers are the ones who are visiting hospitals! Just imagine their reactions if they or one of their relatives happened to be confirmed as coronavirus patient!
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by Bundokji »

SarathW wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:57 am Well.
President Trump started with that the coronavirus is just a seasonal flue,
Now he freed up 50 billion dollars to combat the decease.
I think he has conceded that this is a serious problem.
Or is this just an excuse for quick money-grabbing?

Right now I am suffering from the sour throat, coughing. I think it is just a seasonal flue. If I thought it was coronavirus I would take more precautions.
Well. the implications of mass hysteria on the markets and on general people behavior is evident hence measures by leadership can be reassuring. Yesterday after announcing a state of emergency and economic measures the Dow Jones recovered its losses from the day before.

While its reasonable to assume that leaderships in the world have access to information that is not available to the general public hence certain measures can indicate real risk, its equally reasonable to see how public perception mover leaders into directions that does not necessarily reflect their personal convictions. If you have a child who is fearful of sleeping in the dark, sometimes its easier to just turn on the light than convincing him/her that there is nothing to be feared from the dark.

Take care of your flu as sometimes it can be really strong (regardless of what name we give to it).
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

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Upsetting for sure, but here's something to consider from history. In 1918 during the Spanish Flu officials ignored the danger of allowing large gatherings and went ahead with a parade in Philadelphia.

“If the people are careless, thousands of cases may develop and the epidemic may get beyond control,” the city’s health commissioner, Wilmer Krusen, said in the 1918 article, according to the Philly Voice.

He was the same person who, just a day earlier, allowed to go forward what is now known as the deadliest parade in American history. In doing so, he ignored the advice of medical professionals who urged him to cancel the parade or risk an epidemic.

Within three days, every bed in the city’s 31 hospitals was filled. There were thousands of influenza patients.
Within a week of the parade, more than 45,000 people in Philadelphia were infected with influenza, as the entire city, from schools to pool halls, ground to a halt, according to Wirth.

Within six weeks, more than 12,000 Philadelphians were dead.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... ronavirus/
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by SarathW »

In my opinion, the best sample can be taken from the Dimond Princes case.
So far seven people died out of 696 cases. That is 10 in a thousand.
If we add seriously critical cases it will be 20 in a thousand.
So the current statistics of 37 in a thousand is not far off in my opinion.
We should take this matter very seriously.
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by Nemo »

Bundokji wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:21 am
SarathW wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:57 am Well.
President Trump started with that the coronavirus is just a seasonal flue,
Now he freed up 50 billion dollars to combat the decease.
I think he has conceded that this is a serious problem.
Or is this just an excuse for quick money-grabbing?

Right now I am suffering from the sour throat, coughing. I think it is just a seasonal flue. If I thought it was coronavirus I would take more precautions.
Well. the implications of mass hysteria on the markets and on general people behavior is evident hence measures by leadership can be reassuring. Yesterday after announcing a state of emergency and economic measures the Dow Jones recovered its losses from the day before.

While its reasonable to assume that leaderships in the world have access to information that is not available to the general public hence certain measures can indicate real risk, its equally reasonable to see how public perception mover leaders into directions that does not necessarily reflect their personal convictions. If you have a child who is fearful of sleeping in the dark, sometimes its easier to just turn on the light than convincing him/her that there is nothing to be feared from the dark.

Take care of your flu as sometimes it can be really strong (regardless of what name we give to it).
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Re: Corona virus outbreak

Post by Bundokji »

Nemo wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:01 am
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.
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